Date: Thu, 01 Mar 2001
From: Steve Kipp <skipp@glynn.k12.ga.us>
To: k-12sd <k-12sd@sysdyn.mit.edu>
Subject: FYI-Merchants of Cool

There is a very interesting Frontline show currently airing at various times
called "The Merchants of Cool". Apparently the big five conglomerates
(AOL-TimeWarner, Viacom, etc.) that market to teens use highly paid "cool
hunters" who identify the "coolest" kids and pick their brains via focus groups,
interviews, etc., then use this info to create the teen market (to the tune of
150-300 billion dollars per year). Several case studies are included. The net
effect is that the most anti-social and aggressive tendencies of teens get
amplified and sold back to them as "the way you all should be". The show even
mentions that this is a positive feedback loop.

Here is the link to the show's web site, which includes a teacher's guide:
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/cool/

Steve Kipp
--
Something is different if we study things as if they are alive. A living system
keeps recreating itself. When we apply this to schools and school systems, we
discover that we have to keep asking: Why is the system this way? Why are the
rules like that? You can't settle for pacifying explanations, like "the people
who have the power make it that way." You must inquire more deeply.
 
Peter Senge

------------------------

Date: Tue, 27 Feb 2001
To: k-12sd <k-12sd@sysdyn.mit.edu>
From: Ed Gallaher <gallaher@ohsu.edu>
Subject: Complex math

This has been a very interesting discussion.
The original question from Richard actually eminated from a discussion group including myself, Jody House, Wayne Wakeland, and Louis Macovsky. An inquiry among several of our colleagues about their perceptions of SD led to the comments about the level of difficulty of the math, and the appropriateness for graduate study.
The replies have been fascinating.
e.g. John Gunkler says:
*********
With that long preamble I am now ready to suggest that system dynamics
modeling would have been a godsend in my graduate level differential
equations classes! DiffEq comes to the student all prickly with
difficulties -- requiring an understanding of both differential and integral
calculus (at a time when many students barely grasp those subjects),
bemiring students in the computational details of integration (at a time
when concepts and "intuition" are what is trying to be taught), at seeming
to require the most arduous effort to get to any result no matter how
trivial (I remember as if it were yesterday the entire one-hour period we
spent trying to derive and calculate the equations for coffee cooling --
without success, I might add!) In fact, I don't think I really understood
the dynamics of coffee cooling until I modeled it with system dynamics.
**********
Rather than try to defend SD, suppose we turn the question around.
What does the differential equations approach contribute that makes it worth so much convoluted effort?
I realize there are many advanced techniques, for example determining the stability of a system, but what if I'm not worried about the frequency response and the probability of oscillation?
(I am really serious about this question. It is quite likely that these traditional methods, along with their state-of-the-art modern advances, can solve many problems that are awkward of difficult for SD. However, it is equally true (personal experience) that there is a tremendous overhead in learning many irrelevant techniques along the way. I LOVED calculus when I took it, and I'm still amazed at its intellectual beauty. It was very valuable in my intellectual and analytical development. On a day-to-day basis, however, it is virtually useless in the biomedical research environment.)
I've taught the "rain barrel" model to several hundred high school teachers and many of their students, as well as graduate and medical students studying pharmacokinetics. The rain barrel is simply a first-order decay model, and it easily describes the cooling cup of coffee (i.e. Newton's Law of Cooling).
Since we KNOW that middle school students can do this (including building their own models, changing the level of insulation, etc.), can anyone explain to me why it makes sense to devote several additional years at the college level to solve the same problem (with considerable difficulty) in a diff eq class?
Let's see; I want to know the -amount- of drug in the body at any given time after injection.
***********
TRADITIONAL MATH
* I write the input equation in terms of the "rate of change of drug" (which is not what I want to know).
* I write the output equation in terms of "rate of change of drug" (which is not what I want to know).
* I then combine the two into a single equation.
* This equation will be concise, something like dX/dt = blah, blah, blah, so it won't be readily apparent to the reader what the various symbols mean.
* Then I must integrate this differential equation to determine the amount of drug as a function of time.
* If the equation is at all complicated there will be no solution to this equation. I therefore will use numerical analysis techniques to "add up the bits and pieces" over time. (Huh? I thought Newton invented calculus to avoid exactly this issue . . . ) This means I need additional software, and more college classes.
Summary:
First we write the equation in a form that obscures the intended solution. Second, we try to solve it (integrate) to get it into the form we wanted in the first place. Third, we acknowledge there is no solution. Fourth, we ask the computer to do the numerical integration for us.
********************
SYSTEM DYNAMICS ALTERNATIVE
** Diagram: One stock (Drug) , with one input (dose) and one output (elimination). One auxiliary variable (fraction removed).
** Equations:
* Input = Pulse(100,60,9999) A single dose of 100 mg at t = 60 minutes, with a (loooong) interval to the next dose.
* Output = Drug*(Fractional removal)
* Fractional removal = 0.05.
RUN SIMULATION
********************
The structure of the model is crystal clear.
It is thus easy to point out to students that this SAME MODEL STRUCTURE works for:
* radioactive decay
* cooling cup of coffee
* protein synthesis and decay
* messenger RNA (mRNA) synthesis and decay
* pesticides being flushed from a reservoir
* heat loss from the body after death (time of death estimates)
* intravenous drug infusions
* ETC.
How many real-world problems might these middle school students solve using SD/ST by the time they reach their numerical analysis classes in college?

Hmmm . . . . . .
Ed Gallaher
Edward J. Gallaher, Ph.D.
Research Pharmacologist
Research Service R&D17
Veterans Admininstration Medical Center
Portland, OR 97201
(503) 220-8262 x56677
Associate Professor
Depts. of Behavioral Neuroscience
and Physiology-Pharmacology
Oregon Health Sciences University
 
-------------------------------

Date: Wed, 28 Feb 2001
To: k-12sd <k-12sd@sysdyn.mit.edu>
From: Eileen Riley <rileye1@massed.net>
Subject: Complex math

Eileen Riley, Carlisle Public Schools 
 
 
---------------------------

Date: Fri, 02 Mar 2001
From: "Pete Driscoll" <DRISCOLLP@calhoun-isd.k12.mi.us>
To: <k-12sd@sysdyn.mit.edu>
Subject: New to the group

Hi Janice,
I am new to the SD list and field also, I have been a teacher for 25 years. I have started doing consulting work with schools as a faculty member of the William Glasser Institute teaching Choice Theory / Reality Therapy / Lead Management. I have been intriuged by systems theory since I read "The Fifth Discipline" several years ago, have continued to explore while studying the teachings of Glasser. I now see there is a need to go beyond building better relationships (which is Glasser's major focus) as I help schools walk the path to higher quality.
I am interested in learning what you know works and doesn't from your perspective, and sharing what I know with you.
Peter
k-12sd <k-12sd@sysdyn.mit.edu> 02/14/01 01:36PM >>>

------------------------

Date: Mon, 5 Mar 2001
To: k-12sd@sysdyn.mit.edu
From: "Jay W. Forrester" <jforestr@MIT.EDU>
Subject: Quantifying soft data

The text below is from an exchange on "soft" variables in modeling from the "system-dynamics@europe.std.com" discussion group. It should be of interest to the K-12 list.
=============================================
We have seen a diversity of views on how to use and even whether or not to
use "soft" variables in system dynamics models.
Guenther Ossimitz wrote," SD works best were actual stocks and flows are
involved, as in production lines, delivery chains, stocks of workforce,
capital or whatever. In these fields quantification is quite natural."
Geoff Coyle added, " By persisting in quantifying what cannot be quantified
we risk producing models which are misleading and maybe even fundamentally
wrong."
And on the other side, George Richardson replied, "if such "soft" variables
are indeed crucial to the policy choices management faces, then management
WILL make their best guesses about them, no matter what we do. ... to
explore model sensitivities to such approximations, management is much
better off making quantitative stabs at "what cannot be quantified" than
charging ahead with only intuition to ground the policy choices."
I believe that the maximum reward from system dynamics comes from working
on the most serious problems facing an organization. Seldom does the
difference between corporate success and corporate failure depend on how
inventories are managed. Even when inventories are the critical issue, the
solution is not to be found in flow of parts into and out of inventories
but rather in the upper level decision making that determines adequacy of
inventories, purchasing of capital plant, and finance.
In my own modeling experience, very often only ten percent of the variables
are of the hard variety like inventories and employees and the other ninety
percent are such matters as pressures from the finance people on holding
down inventories, or the marketing people exerting influence to lower
prices until there are not sufficient resources to provide the quality and
prompt delivery that customers want.
Even in the area of so-called "hard" variables like inventories, one will
still be using soft concepts. As I look at Coyle's book, "System Dynamics
Modeling," on page 212, in a diagram about inventories, I see some assumed
constants that are actually semi-soft variables behind which, in real
systems, are an array of soft variables--averaging period for order rate,
weeks of average orders, and time to correct order backlog. Where do such
parameters come from? They are usually influenced by managerial pressures
from outside the inventory system, are subject to pressures from finances,
and complaints from marketing and customers.
Are there any concepts that can not be quantified? Anything that can be
discussed in a better or worse, or a more or less, sense can be quantified.
Consider the integrity of a person or organization. Integrity is
considered very important in many situations. I assume it lies in what
most people would consider soft variables. If it is important to the
problem at hand, then to leave it out because it is soft is to say that it
has no influence, which would be the worst possible assumption. If one
lists ten people or corporations that are well known to a dozen people, I
expect that there will be a rather similar ranking of the ten by the dozen
judges. Not identical, but similar. Choose an arbitrary scale, like zero
to ten. Then assign a low integrity candidate at three and a high
integrity example as eight. Now there is a scale. The challenge then
becomes deciding how to use integrity in decision making on such matters as
bidding on contracts, which is soft but important. Taking these steps into
soft variables always sharpens people's thinking, and the resulting model
usually reveals important but surprising behavior.

---------------------------------------------------------

Jay W. Forrester
Professor of Management
Sloan School
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Room E60-389
Cambridge, MA 02139
tel: 617-253-1571
fax: 617-258-9405
Home office:
tel: 978-369-9372
fax: 978-369-9077

-------------------------------

Date: Mon, 5 Mar 2001
To: k-12sd <k-12sd@sysdyn.mit.edu>
From: George Richardson <gpr@albany.edu>
Subject: Re: System dynamics in graduate school

I would appreciate very much if you could e-mail the course outline(s) that you are using for your own Ph.D. program inn SD.
My courses are detailed on my web site, below.
...GPR
--
-------------------------------------------------------------------
George P. Richardson <gpr@albany.edu>
Chair, Public Administration and Policy Ph: 518-442-5258
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy Fx: 518-442-5298
University at Albany, Albany, NY 12222 <http://www.albany.edu/~gpr>
-------------------------------------------------------------------

From: KCStarguy@aol.com
Date: Mon, 12 Mar
Subject: model for stella
To: k-12sd@sysdyn.mit.edu

This just came out. Seems a good project for STELLA.
-------------------
MATH PROGRAM CRACKS CAUSE OF VENUS CLIMATE CHANGE
A mathematical model of the surface of Venus could show
how the hot, dry surface has reacted to changes in temperature
throughout the planet's history.
Patterns of cracks were found on Venus' 500-degree
surface by NASA's Magellan spacecraft in the early 1990s.
Using an analysis technique by Pierre Moreels, a French intern
at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif., the
patterns proved to be roughly hexagonal. This kind of cracking
pattern shows that the surface has heated and cooled by almost
200 degrees Celsius (392 degrees Fahrenheit) over long periods
of time.
Moreels adopted a modeling technique that was originally
developed for medical imaging to discern individual blood
cells, ensuring an accurate count. The technique is called the
watershed transformation and has also been used in Earth-
observing satellite images of fields.
"The program uses an analogy to the Earth's watershed
process to filter out the noise from the radar imaging system
on Magellan," Moreels said. "It finds the regions in the
surface covered with patterns of multi-sided shapes. The more
of these areas of multi-sided shapes we find, the better we
can understand the history of climactic change on Venus."
Moreels and his mentor, Dr. Sue Smrekar, a research
scientist in JPL's Geophysics and Planetary Geology section,
report their results today at the Lunar and Planetary Science
Conference in Houston, Texas.
The Magellan spacecraft took pictures of large areas of
fissures, analogous to cooling basalt fractures on Earth, but
on a much larger scale. The mathematical program filters out
recurring radar noise by mapping the cracks into a graph
simulating a field of mountains - the rougher the surface, the
higher the peak. The program fills in the valleys of the
simulated landscape, much as rain fills in a lake. This way,
small peaks of radar noise are covered over, and only the
dramatic changes in the surface's roughness remain.
The program then evens out the edges and connects them.
The result is a map of the surface cracks that can easily sort
out the number and orientation of the cracks and the area
between them. The shapes generally have six sides of different
lengths and cover an area more than 100 square kilometers (39
square miles).
Slow heating and cooling globally could have formed large
areas of cracks on Venus' surface. A major episode of
resurfacing occurred on Venus roughly 700 million years ago,
in which water and sulfur levels in the atmosphere rose.
Mapping the size and distribution of the cracks will help
determine whether they are the result of local or global
heating. Other models, in which volcanoes heat the surface or
flows erupt on the surface and cool, have difficulties in
explaining the size of these polygons.
More information on the Magellan mission is available at
http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/magellan .
The California Institute of Technology in Pasadena
manages JPL for NASA.

-----------------------

Dr. Eric Flescher (KCStarguy@aol.com)
Project S.I.M.-Simulations, Interdisciplinary internet and metacognitive
activities
Dr. Eric Flescher (KCStarguy@aol.com) - webmaster Eric's Black Sun Eclipse
website - http://members.aol.com/kcstarguy/blacksun/eclipse.htm -editor-
Black Sun eclipse newsletter (eclipse and astronomy news etc- to subscribe
send email to blacksunnews-subscribe@egroups.com Eclipse Train Land cruise
June 2001- Host/presenter- http://mayhugh.com/train/train.htm

-------------------------

From: "Terry McCarthy" <irishtmc@hotmail.com>
To: k-12sd@sysdyn.mit.edu
Subject: Action research assistance
Date: Wed, 14 Mar 2001

Hello all,
I am hoping that somewhere out in the nether regions of cyberspace, there are some folks on this listserv who would be willing to assist me with an action research project I have undertaken as part of my Masters in Ed. course.
My research question is: How can I shape language arts curriculum to provide my first grade students with some awareness of cause and effect relationships? This research is meant to be an extension of previous work I have done in providing my students with opportunities to explore casual relationships through children's literature and physical models (story cards, dominoes, etc...). I feel strongly that first grade is none too soon to lay the foundations of vocabulary and fundamental understanding of SD/ST.
I would appreciate feedback from others (both pro and con) on my premise. I would also be grateful for the opportunity to correspond directly with others who are pursuing the same path.
Regards,
Terry McCarthy - McCarver Elementary School - Tacoma, WA

-------------------------------

From: xenonroz@bellsouth.com
Date: Wed, 14 Mar 2001
To: K-12sd@sysdyn.mit.edu
Subject: Use of System Dynamics in Special Education

My name is Greg Smith. I'm interested in using system dynamics in my
special education class. I teach severely emotionally handicapped
students. I believe that a lot of my students are still at maybe a
concrete stage (Piaget). I believe that this system maybe can be
adapted for use in my class.

------------------------

Date: Thu, 15 Mar 2001
From: Paul Newton <paulnewton@attglobal.net>
To: k-12sd <k-12sd@sysdyn.mit.edu>
Subject: Re: Action research assistance

Terry,
You may be aware of this, but one document I find myself showing to lots of
people interested in introducing systems to young children is the "Picture Kit:
For Introducing Causal And Feedback Thinking To Primary Level Students" by Nancy
Roberts. You can download it from the Creative Learning Exchange
www.clexchange.org. It identifier is "SD1994-08PictureKit" and it is in the
"System Dynamics" section of the CLE's "Documents" link off of
www.clexchange.org.
I believe there are also lots of other resources that you can use at the CLE for
primary education. In particular I think there are some group games that might
be useful. But I am not up to speed on these and hope someone else will give you
some guidance.

Best wishes...
Paul Newton

*******************************************
Paul Newton
paulnewton@attglobal.net
http://www.stewardshipmodeling.com
667 St. James Circle, Green Bay, WI 54311
(607) 255-5230 (@ Cornell through sometime in the Spring of 2001) &
(920) 465-1896 (permanent in Green Bay), e-fax: (815) 461-9636,
*************************************************************
-------------------------

From: "Compton, Dan" <dan.compton@intel.com>
To: "'k-12sd'" <k-12sd@sysdyn.mit.edu>
Subject: RE: Use of System Dynamics in Special Education
Date: Thu, 15 Mar 2001

To Greg,
My name is Dan Compton. I think that the only lasting education for those
with a preference for the concrete stage is experiential. I have had
success in teaching systems thinking and system dynamics concepts to k-3
using a symbol mastery technique invented by Ron Davis (www.dyslexia.com)
I have a theory of how this helps students emerge and stretch beyond the
concrete stage. This theory has been rendered both as a causal-loop diagram
and a system dynamics simulation. The work is not published, but I will
share the model with you or others who may be interested.
--Dan
 
-------------------------

Date: Thu, 15 Mar 2001
To: k-12sd <k-12sd@sysdyn.mit.edu>
From: Linda Booth Sweeney <linda_booth_sweeney@harvard.edu>
Subject: Re: Action research assistance

Terry,
There's an exercise in the third volume of the Systems Thinking Playbook called "Post Card" stories. With plenty of scaffolding, children (or adults) are asked to construct a circular feedback story using interesting black and white post-cards.
Might this be integrated into the curriculum?

My best,

Linda ---------------------------------
Linda Booth Sweeney
Harvard Graduate School of Education
e-mail: Linda_Booth_Sweeney@harvard.edu
tel: 617-354-1390
fax: 617-491-3496

---------------------

From: "Janice Hansel" <hansel@texas.net>
To: "k-12sd" <k-12sd@sysdyn.mit.edu>
Subject: Use of System Dynamics in Special Education
Date: Thu, 15 Mar 2001

Greg,

One area where I have seen systems thinking used with special ed kids is in
the use of flow charts with photographs. You might want to check with
professionals in the fields that help kids with developmental delays (child
psych, occupational therapy, speech/language, etc) to see how they use
snapshots for flow-charting. The kids I know in these programs benefit from
the security of knowing "what comes next" and what their schedule that day
will look like.

Janice Hansel
Austin, TX

---------------------

From: "Janice C. Kowalczyk" <kowalcjn@ride.ri.net>
To: "k-12sd" <k-12sd@sysdyn.mit.edu>
Subject: Action research assistance

Terry, I highly recommend the book "when a butterfly sneezes" by Linda Booth
Sweeney published by Pegasus...it is available Amazon.com. It should will
be a good guide for your purposes.
Janice Kowalczyk

-----Original Message-----
 From: "Terry McCarthy" <irishtmc@hotmail.com>
To: k-12sd@sysdyn.mit.edu
Subject: Action research assistance
Date: Wed, 14 Mar 2001 12:11:06 -0800
Hello all,
I am hoping that somewhere out in the nether regions of cyberspace,
there are some folks on this listserv who would be willing to assist
me with an action research project I have undertaken as part of my
Masters in Ed. course.
My research question is: How can I shape language arts curriculum to
provide my first grade students with some awareness of cause and
effect relationships? This research is meant to be an extension of
previous work I have done in providing my students with opportunities
to explore casual relationships through children's literature and
physical models (story cards, dominoes, etc...). I feel strongly that
first grade is none too soon to lay the foundations of vocabulary and
fundamental understanding of SD/ST.
I would appreciate feedback from others (both pro and con) on my
premise. I would also be grateful for the opportunity to correspond
directly with others who are pursuing the same path.
Regards,
Terry McCarthy - McCarver Elementary School - Tacoma, WA

----------------------------

Date: Thu, 15 Mar 2001
From: "J. R. Llanes" <llanes@panam.edu>
To: k-12sd <k-12sd@sysdyn.mit.edu>
Subject: Re: Quantifying soft data

To Ed and Others,

There are a number of applications for translating imprecise human inputs (responses) to numerical data. Lofti Zadeh's demonstrations of "fuzzy logic" with empaneled juries was a first attempt to apply mathematical set theory to vague or imprecise human opinions, rankings, preferences, etc.

JR Llanes

--------------------------

From: KCStarguy@aol.com
Date: Sun, 18 Mar 2001
Subject: Re: Use of System Dynamics in Special Education
To: xenonroz@bellsouth.com, k-12sd@sysdyn.mit.edu

Greg,

I think if you treat as visual based and not just mathematics you may have a
chance. commendable try.

Dr. Eric Flescher (KCStarguy@aol.com)
Project S.I.M. (Simulations, interdisciplinary Internet and Metacognitive
activities)

---------------------------

From: "Peter Lakey" <plakey01@earthlink.net>
To: <k-12mas@sysdyn.mit.edu>, "k-12sd" <k-12sd@sysdyn.mit.edu>
Subject: Re: Quantifying soft data
Date: Fri, 16 Mar 2001

Fuzzy Logic is a simple, yet profound, method for capturing complex
information in simple rules. I suggest reading Bart Kosko's book, "Fuzzy
Thinking," to obtain a good grasp of the fundamentals of this discipline.
In fact, I think that fuzzy logic is an essential ingredient in system
dynamics. If you read the section of the Book on Fuzzy Cognitive Maps,
you'll see that's it really Systems Dynamics.

Pete Lakey
Software Research Scientist
Cognitive Concepts
458 E. Jackson
Webster Groves, MO 63119
plakey01@earthlink.net

----------------

Date: Mon, 19 Mar 2001
From: jan mons <jmons@glynn.k12.ga.us>
To: k-12sd <k-12sd@sysdyn.mit.edu>
Subject: Re: Use of System Dynamics in Special Education

Greg,
I tried to write to you directly but had trouble getting through with
your email address.
Many of the teachers I work with in our Elementary program have found
that the use of ST/SD actually gives an edge to our SLD and BD students.
Many times they don't have the "right" answers or the ability to express
themselves well verbally or in writing. BUT using Behavior Over Time
Graphs to express their thinking opens a door to them by making them
equal with others. They often have a better grasp of the causality
involved then some of our "gifted" students.
The use of the ST/SD tools gives them the extra step they need to move
from concrete to more abstract thinking.
We use ST/SD in our character education program also. It has helped
students see the connections between their actions and their
relationships with others and on items such as Accepting Responsibility.
I am not sure what grade level you work with but if you are interested
in more detail about some activities we use to introduce ST/SD to our
students please contact me and I will be happy to share.

Jan Mons
GIST mentor
Glynn County School System
Brunswick, GA

----------------------

Date: Tue, 20 Mar 2001
From: "John Heinbokel" <Heinboke@trinityvt.edu>
To: <k-12sd@sysdyn.mit.edu>
Subject: Re: Use of System Dynamics in Special Education

Jan's point about special needs students often getting an unaccustomed edge
with the use of system dynamics tools is a critically important one (thanks, Jan, for expressing it!), but one that is probably too important to restrict to a conversation just about primary grades.
It reminded me of an experience that Jeff Potash and I had the first time we taught the courses "Plagues and People" at Trinity College under the auspices of the Waters Center for System Dynamics. We had a young lady, a college senior, in the course who, without our realizing it at the start of the semester, had a learning disability that limited her ability to create or decode complex linguistic structures and arguments. As just our normal way of developing the material we used a variety of graphical and computer modeling tools to express the points in this course, a multi-disciplinary examination of the impact of epidemic diseases on human history. The student in question did quite well and enthusiastically and constructively participated throughout the term. Part way through the semester she came to us and expressed her gratitude. It was, she explained, one of the few college experiences she had had where she felt she was able to participate and contribute on a level playing field.
As I said, not relevant to Greg's initial inquiry about elementary ed, but perhaps a point for the rest of us to reflect on.

john heinbokel
waters center for system dynamics

---------------------------

Date: Tue, 20 Mar 2001
From: "hetty m. nieuwaard" <h.nieuwaard@chello.nl>
To: k-12sd <k-12sd@sysdyn.mit.edu>
Subject: Re: Use of System Dynamics in Special Education

Jan,

my name is not Greg but I am very much interested in your work too. Especially where you use ST/SD as a step to move from concrete to abstract thinking. Would you be kind enough to tell about your way of working on this list for everyone to read?

Hetty M. Nieuwaard
Quality Assurance coordinator Health Care
Fontis Amsterdam Netherlands

---------------------------

From: KCStarguy@aol.com
Date: Thu, 22 Mar 2001
Subject: Re: Use of System Dynamics in Special Education
To: k-12sd@sysdyn.mit.edu, jmons@glynn.k12.ga.us

To Jan,

Very interesting. Can you send more information about some of the curriculum
and activities that are used at your schools. It would be helpful.
I have been amazed how one math teacher I work with will try to explain with
words how to solve an area problem in math without even talking about the
complexity of the diagram. She did not even think to draw the diagram on the
board and go from their to explain the logic and steps to solve each area
part of the diagram.
This is the kind of thinking that goes in schools all the time. Instead of
explaining from the visual end, they try to explain it with "words."
Interesting to hear more.

Dr. Eric Flescher (KCStarguy@aol.com)
Project S.I.M.-Simulations, Interdisciplinary internet and metacognitive
activities
Editor, MacsU.N.I.T.E.- Macintosh Users Network for Integrating Technology
into Education- to subscribe send email to macsunite-subscribe@egroups.com
Editor, PC version TechU.N.I.T.E.- Technology Users Network for Integrating
Technology into Education- to subscribe send email to
techunite-subscribe@egroups.com

----------------------------

From: "Paul Preuss" <ppreuss@borg.com>
To: "k-12sd" <k-12sd@sysdyn.mit.edu>
Subject: Re: Quantifying soft data
Date: Sat, 24 Mar 2001

I am on the fringes of this group - I think this is one of my very few
postings. I have joined to learn from your discussions to see if there is
anything I can glean for my work with schools in what we call comprehensive
planning. The foundation of comprehensive planning is systems, the use of
data, the search for root cause(s) and a focus on results (key indicators).
Although schools are swimming in data, it is typically unused and
disorganized and even the so-called "hard" data, such as test scores, is
actually fairly "soft". This thread on the "quantification of soft data"
has caught my attention and I have a question. Does anyone on this list
make use of "fuzzy logic" principles in dealing with soft data? As I
understand it, and I am just a very beginner in trying to understand "fuzzy
logic" and its use - FL deals with partial truth or degrees of truth as
opposed to binary or Boolean logic which deals in absolutes of 1= true and 0
= false. It was developed to deal with the uncertainty of language when
terms such as "tall" were used. So one would compute degrees of tallness
such as .78 with 0 = not tall and 1 = tall. How is FL related to systems
dynamics and the quantifying of soft data such as "tallness".

Paul Preuss
www.Plan2020.com

------------------------------

Date: Fri, 23 Mar 2001
From: jan mons <jmons@glynn.k12.ga.us>
To: k-12sd <k-12sd@sysdyn.mit.edu>
Subject: Re: Use of System Dynamics in Special Education

To Hetty and other not Gregs who are interested.

Perhaps a better way of looking at the use of ST/SD in the flow from
concrete to abstract thinking is a statement one of the teachers I work
with made. Her view of the use of ST/SD is that it helps make abstract
thinking concrete. I can use ST/SD to explain very complex thinking in a
very visual and concrete manner. If you connect that to John Heinbokel's
example of a college student who was unable to create and decode complex
linguistic structures and arguments - What ST/SD can do is break the
current thinking that „students‰ are not abstract thinkers. Perhaps we
have just not given them the tools to express their ability to think
abstractly. Tim Joy uses ST/SD as a language to communicate. Dr
Forrester in his keynote address for the ST/DM conference in 1994 in
Concord describes the "Renaissance Man‰ that can blossom from the use of
system dynamics."
I am not an expert on the divisions and steps from concrete to abstract
thinking. Last year I started to work with 3 second teachers and their
students, previously I had worked with 8th grade. I did not know what
second graders could and couldn't do in terms of concrete and abstract
thinking. The teachers got a little nervous as I introduced tools and
concepts but eventually we all began to realize that WE were the
limiting factor on the students‚ thinking. Given the tools of ST/SD the
students could explain their ideas and make connections that the
teachers tell me second and third graders are not supposed to be able to
make.
Recently we asked students to tell us how ST/SD had helped them. One of
the students cannot read above about a 1st grade level.
His comment was „ sestus has helpt me lern and get buter grads in sinse‰
- It translates as „systems has helped me learn and get better grades in
science‰. Obviously, his writing skills are weak also, BUT give him a
situation and he can pick the causal loop out and tell you whether it is
balancing or reinforcing. Last year he blossomed as the class ST/SD
expert as he helped explain things even to the teacher - probably the
first thing he was best at. The other skills will come but at least he
won‚t be put in a corner as a student who cannot think.
Back to the original question - How does this happen? My approach is
to teach ST/SD tools and concepts just as I would teach reading, writing
or Œrithmatic, the 3R‚s. We call ST/SD the „4th R‰. As a mentor, I
have developed, with the help of the teachers, a series of lessons that
are meant to enable the students and teachers to learn the fine points
of the basic tools: BOTG, CLD, and S/FD. I will teach a tool and then
the teachers and students will practice it for a week or so. We then
add and connect the next tool, etc. We are trying to bring ST/SD into
the classroom everyday by finding connections to whatever is going on -
just as we do with reading, etc. Currently a small group of the
students, 3rd graders who were the second graders I worked with last
year, and I are creating a model for the other students to use.
How do you teach someone to build a house? First, you demonstrate to
them the fundamental concepts and tools and then let them practice and
experiment. In the true sense of learner directed learning -
demonstrate and move out of their way.
Specifics activities are not available yet except those in the first
version of the „4th R‰ that we presented at the CLE ST/DM conference in
Washington last summer. We have been building additions, and
redecorating it all year and will have the new version at the Systems
Dynamics Society Conference in Atlanta, GA this summer.
I will admit an advantage of working with Elementary students. Their
MENTAL MODELS of how things work are in the construction process and not
as strong. When you hand them tools to enable them to redesign their
mental models it is easier. As students move through our current
educational system and become adults it becomes more and more difficult
for them to accept the rebuilding/decorating process. Dr Forrester has
said it will take 50 years. I hope we are now down to 45.

Jan Mons
GIST mentor
Glynn County School System
Brunswick, GA
 
---------------------------

Date: Mon, 26 Mar 2001
To: k-12sd <k-12sd@sysdyn.mit.edu>
From: Melinda Salazar <msalazar@cisunix.unh.edu>
Subject: Re: qualitative data

I'd like to know if anyone has experience with the software: NVIVO, a
qualitative research coding tool. Or, can anyone recommend other
ethnographic software (for a Mac, please.)

Thanks,

Melinda
Melinda Salazar
42 Oyster River Road
Durham, NH 03824
603-868-5131
603-378-2064
msalazar@cisunix.unh.edu

---------------------------------------

From: "Peter Lakey" <plakey01@earthlink.net>
To: "k-12sd" k-12sd@sysdyn.mit.edu

Subject: Re: Quantifying soft data
Date: Mon, 26 Mar 2001

Paul,

A short answer to your question is this: Fuzzy logic can be used to assign
relationships among items or elements of a system dynamics model. Instead
of trying to assign hard values or linear equations, just use fuzzy
definitions. For example, suppose we have a model that represents the
relationships between Calories, Exercise, and Body weight. In the nominal
case, an Average number of Calories and an Average amount of Exercise
results in Body Weight = no change.
In a fuzzy model, if we Increase Calories a Little, Body Weight = gain a
Little. If we increase Calories a Lot, Body Weight = gain a Lot. Similarly,
if we Increase Exercise a Little, Body Weight = Lose a Little and if we
Increase Exercise a Lot, Body Weight = Lose a Lot. There are obviously
other combinations of Calories and Exercise that will yield different
results.
The key is that we can represent relationships among variables easily, and
in a simple terminology. However, to make such a model useful, some smart
person needs to define quantitatively what is meant by a Little and a Lot,
both for Calories and Exercise. For Calories, a Little may be 50-200
calories per day and a Lot may be 500-1000 calories per day.
Fuzzy Logic allows us to construct models quickly simply by documenting the
relationship between two variables; whether an increase in one has a
corresponding increase or decrease in another. The model development
doesn't need to get bogged down in strict mathematical relationships.
That's as simple as I can get. So I'll give up here.

Pete Lakey

---------------------------------

From: "Anne Nordholm" <anordholm@wi.rr.com>
To: <k-12sd@sysdyn.mit.edu>
Subject: raising curriculum ceilings
Date: Sat, 24 Mar 2001

I have been a student of the essences and principles of systems thinking since 1990.  I have used mind mapping, and I am just beginning to get into the application tools of systems thinking: causal feedback loops, simulations, and STELLA.
No one in my home school district uses STELLA or organic diagrams to illustrate and test mathematical and scientific concepts/processes. However, I have the opportunity to share the ideas of systems thinking with some middle school and high school math and science teachers in the district. My intention is to help teachers blow the lids off pretty tight curriculum ceilings by allowing students to pursue mathematics and science using these differentiated systems tools. This strategy is part of a solution to design effective gifted and talented programming at the high school level.
Since I am not a science or math teacher, how can I best motivate middle and high school teachers to explore the application of STELLA and organic diagramming? What is the most compelling evidence from your student achievement files that might inspire teachers to take this instructional risk?

Thanks for any help.
Anne Nordholm
<mailto:anordholm@wi.rr.com>anordholm@wi.rr.com

--------------------------------

Date: Tue, 27 Mar 2001
To: k-12sd <k-12sd@sysdyn.mit.edu>
From: George Richardson <gpr@albany.edu>
Subject: Re: Quantifying soft data

Paul wrote:
How is FL related to systems
dynamics and the quantifying of soft data such as "tallness".

System dynamics modelers were embedding various fuzzy logic structures in their models from the beginning, although nobody knew it and naturally scholars have taken FL much further since.

Here's a suggestive example: Let's say you want to represent in a model the structure and dynamics of a bunch of people making separate "IF-THEN" decisions, such as in the famous Fish Banks game, the decision to "send boats to the deep sea to fish if the profit is greater there than in the coastal region." If it's one decision-maker, we'd be happy with "IF deep sea profit >= coast profit, then fraction of boats to deep sea = 1, else 0."
But if there's a lot of decision makers, and their profits vary somewhat, along with their confidence or certainty, then a discrete IF-THEN would misrepresent the situation. Some would decide early, some late -- there'd be a distribution of decisions.
So to capture that we switch from discrete logic to arithmetic (just like the arithmetic of fuzzy logic). We'd write something like
Fraction to deep sea = f(Deep sea profit - Coast profit),
where the graphical function f would be S-shaped: 0 to the left, gradually rising more and more steeply to .5 when the profits are equal, and gradually rising less and less steeply to 1 to the right, where the average deep sea profit among all the decision makers is well greater than the average coast profit.
(The discrete IF-THEN here would be a step function; the "fuzzy" equivalent we need for an aggregate system involving a number of decision makers is S-shaped.)
The more general pattern is:
Quantity = A if X <= Y else B
becomes
Quantity = (Weight on A)*A + (1 - Weight on A)*B
where
Weight on A is an S-shaped function going from zero through .5 (probably at X=y) and gradually approaching 1 as X exceeds Y.
As for "tallness" I suppose we could enter a graphical function with the height of someone, and the output of the function would vary from 0 (not tall at all) to 1 (totally tall), although I'm not sure I'd want such a concept or formulation in a dynamic model. Our purposes are somewhat different from fuzzy logic folk: they are trying to give us a "calculus" for reasoning sort of logically in fuzzy settings, while we are trying to understand the structure and dynamics of a dynamic system. Since we're usually dealing with aggregates, we're forced into fuzzy logic-like structures to capture the structure and dynamics of aggregate decision making.

I hope that is going where you wanted to go...
...George

-------------------------------------------------------------------
George P. Richardson <gpr@albany.edu>
Chair, Public Administration and Policy Ph: 518-442-5258
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy Fx: 518-442-5298
University at Albany, Albany, NY 12222 <http://www.albany.edu/~gpr>
-------------------------------------------------------------------

----------------------------

From: KCStarguy@aol.com
Date: Tue, 27 Mar 2001
Subject: Re: raising curriculum ceilings
To: k-12sd@sysdyn.mit.edu

To Anne,

I think that you could introduce them to benefits of diagramming concepts by
using webbing concepts to outline with inspiration. Stella is an interactive
stella.
After having them outline you can move up to a system or cycle model. The
stella could be the tool to really test it.

Dr. Eric Flescher (KCStarguy@aol.com)
Project S.I.M. (Simulations, interdisciplinary Internet and Metacognitive
activities)
-------------------------

From: xenonroz@bellsouth.com
Date: Tue, 27 Mar 2001 17:46:34 -0800
To: k-12sd <k-12sd@sysdyn.mit.edu>
Subject: Re: Use of System Dynamics in Special Education

The students that I teach come to my school primarily because of behavior
problems. I find their grade level using a test, then I use an assortment of
behavior modification techniques to effect change in their behavior. Behavior is
the main thing at my school (West Greenville School for the severely emotionally
handicapped). I am hoping to utilize methods used in SD in behavior
modification.

Greg Smith

---------------------

Date: Wed, 28 Mar
To: k-12sd@sysdyn.mit.edu
From: Lees Stuntz <stuntzln@clexchange.org>
Subject: DynamiQUEST

DynamiQUEST 2001
May 11, 9 A.M.-3 P.M.,
Campus Center
Worcester Polytechnic Institute
Worcester, MA
Who:
Any student or group of students grades 5-12.
Students may enter original work or their application of other work (CLE, CC-STADUS, etc.) This might include a unit, a lesson, or an application of one or more of the systems tools. The rubrics will be used by coaches to provide feedback related to students use of systems tools and development of systems understanding. The objective is to aim for the standards that apply to the work submitted for DynamiQUEST 2001, whether it is a BOTG or an extensive project with a working model. Remember, the philosophy of DynamiQUEST 2001 is to improve student learning by honoring the work of students as they learn the tools and method of SD/ST. Collaborative projects are encouraged, but individual projects are welcome too.
What:
· A reviewed poster session where students stand by their work and respond to questions from coaches and visitors
· Students receive feedback from coaches experienced in SD/ST
· An afternoon session where student teams work spontaneously to solve problems SD/ST tools and present their solutions to the larger group
Where: ·
Campus Center, WPI (Worcester Polytechnic Institute), Worcester, Massachusetts. Lunch and Snacks provided. For those groups coming from far away, overnight stays in a nearby motel or with local families will be coordinated. Call (978-287-0070) or e-mail (stuntzln@clexchange.org) Lees Stuntz, Creative Learning Exchange.
What and why…..
Students (and teachers) are at various places along the road to developing proficiency with thinking systemically and employing System Dynamics/Systems Thinking (SD/ST) to address complex issues and increase understanding. We seek to encourage students and teachers to develop an understanding of the use of SD/ST tools. We also know that we need an environment, free from the "winner/loser" constraint, where kids can receive feedback from other kids as well as from teachers and professionals well versed in SD/ST. DynamiQUEST creates a venue for both celebrating what has been done and providing encouragement for all to continue!
In this spirit, DynamiQUEST was launched last year. DynamiQUEST 2001 will provide a venue for students in Grades 5-12 to showcase work in which they have employed the tools and method of system dynamics. This effort has several purposes:
· Provide a way for students to meet other students and see what they are doing
· Permit teachers from different schools to see evidence of student work in ST/SD
· Provide a venue for teachers and kids to network
· Have some fun and celebrate with your kids!
For more information :
http://clexchange.org/cle_dq.html
Or e-mail me at:
Stuntzln@clexchange.org
Lees N. Stuntz
Creative Learning Exchange Phone- 978-287-0070
1 Keefe Road Fax- 978-287-0080
Acton, MA 01720 e-mail- stuntzln@clexchange.org
http://clexchange.org
-------------------------
End March 2001