July 1998
This is a monitored list for discussion of system dynamics in K-12 education.
Send contributions and all requests to subscribe and unsubscribe to:
k-12sd@sysdyn.mit.edu
Date: Thu, 2 Jul 1998 To: k-12sd-@sysdyn.mit.edu
From: rstanley@together.net (Rolfe Stanley) (by way of k-12sd)
Subject: Re: generic isotopic model
Many months ago I promised several people models on isotopic dating...Due
to family problems I do not spend as much time on research/modeling as I
would like.. Here, however, is a generic modle useful for geological
applications since it can factor in real decay constants and open the
system sometime during the simulation. I send 2 models for your
consideration..I'll gladly ans questions if needed
If you would like a copy of these models I can send them to you in binhex
code. Please contact me at rstanley@together.net..
Rolfe Stanley
Stanley Computer Center
Fletcher Extension
Date: Thu, 2 Jul 1998
To: k-12sd-@sysdyn.mit.edu
From: Rolfe Stanley <rstanley@together.net> (by way of k-12sd)
Subject: Recent conference
A short note to thank all responsible for a super conference in New
Hampshire. Laurie Toof, my daughter, and I enjoyed talking to so many
people. Laurie received alot of very good advice and suggestions as she
prepares to enter into her new career as a teacher.
For those of you who are interested in geological applications using
STELLA, please contact me and I will forward models that you can work
with...
Rolfe Stanley
Stanley Computer Center
Fletcher Extension
Date: Thu, 2 Jul 1998
To: k-12sd-@sysdyn.mit.edu
From: "FLIA VASQUEZ GOMEZ" <vasquezgomez@epm.net.co> (by way of k-12sd)
Subject: Greeting from Colombia
Hi everybody,
I am studying a masters in Technology Management and attending a research
in Knowledge Management Systems with indicators.
For our research we need to model an entreprise (organization) in order to
test our set of indicators. We developed some simple models with system
dinamics and we realize that it is a very powerful tool.
Any recomendation about how to model an organization as a hole will be more
than welcome.
Best Regards,
Mario L Vasquez
Date: Mon, 6 Jul 1998
To: k-12sd-@sysdyn.mit.edu
From: "Jay W. Forrester" <jforestr@MIT.EDU> (by way of k-12sd)
Subject: System dynamics in K-12 education
Last week the "Systems Thinking and Dynamic Modeling--A Conference for K-12
Education" was held in Durham, New Hampshire, USA.
I have never before attended a conference with such a high level of
excitement, confidence, sense of past accomplishment, and hope for the
future. About 270 people attended, mostly teachers, with a scattering of
administrators and people with a professional background in system dynamics.
We are especially grateful to Lees Stuntz and her staff at the Creative
Learning Exchange for an excellent program and an ideal location to hold a
conference.
Especially notable was the progress reported by teachers in primary schools
and in middle schools. In one place, kindergarten students identify stocks
and flows in their environment. In at least one first-grade class the
students draw behavior-over-time graphs of changes they identify in stories
that are read to them (dynamics before they are doing their own reading).
My favorite sound bite from the conference was from a high school teacher
who said, "High school teachers who know what it going on are terrified.
They can see the day coming when the primary and middle schools will be
delivering little monsters that can THINK!!!"
Several teachers have said in various ways that they had no idea the
children could do so much. As the primary and middle school teachers
reported on what they are doing, various people, including the experienced
system dynamics people, said they would never have thought that such
learning could occur at so young an age.
So, I have a question for people on this list. What aspects of the present
existing knowledge about system dynamics do you believe can not be
understood by 8th grade (about ages 13 to 14)? Of what we now know about
the dynamics of systems, which techniques, insights about systems,
principles, and understanding of behavior can not be mastered before
students get to high school? I would like to compile a list of material
that people think must be deferred until high school or college.
---------------------------------------------------------
Jay W. Forrester
Professor of Management, Emeritus
and Senior Lecturer, Sloan School
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Room E60-389
Cambridge, MA 02139
tel: 617-253-1571
fax: 617-258-9405
Home office:
tel: 978-369-9372
fax: 978-369-9077
Date: Mon, 6 Jul 1998 11:41:53 -0400
To: k-12sd-@sysdyn.mit.edu
From: George Richardson <gr383@cnsvax.albany.edu> (by way of k-12sd)
Subject: Energy 2020 (fwd)
Dear k-12 folk,
I'm sending you below a message from John Sterman to the system dynamics
listserve in response to some messages about the Energy 2020 modeling
being done and some concerns people wrote about the global warming data.
Maybe it will be hard to read John's note without the previous notes, but
I think you'll get the idea of John's wise critique, and I think it
reinforces the work that so many of you are doing so well in the k-12
grades. I particularly recommend to you John's quote from St. Exupery.
So keep on empowering kids...
...GPR
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
George P. Richardson G.P.Richardson@Albany.edu
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy Phone: 518-442-3859
University at Albany - SUNY, Albany, NY 12222 Fax: 518-442-3398
http://cnsvax.albany.edu/~gr383/
Date: Sun, 05 Jul 1998 From: John Sterman <jsterman@MIT.EDU>
Reply-To: system-dynamics@world.std.com
To: system-dynamics@world.std.com
Subject: REPLY Energy 2020 (SD1528)
In SD 1526 Roberto Vacca analyzes trends in global CO2 concentrations by
fitting a logistic curve to the Keeling et al. Mauna Loa CO2 data. As is
often the case with data showing exponential-like growth, the equation fits
reasonably well. Roberto finds a good fit with an asymptote of 400 ppm
CO2. He then makes the following claim:
"If future observations will confirm that the current trend aims at the 400
ppm asymptote (only 10% higher than the present level), dangers of global
warming due to increases of atmospheric CO2 would have to be assessed as
much lower than judged by some - or, perhaps, as non existent."
With all due respect, this analysis is not credible and cannot be taken
seriously. Other plausible growth models such as the Gompertz, Richards,
and others will fit the data equally well and give vastly different
'predictions' of ultimate CO2 levels. Indeed, there is an infinite number
of alternative models that can fit any data set arbitrarily well and still
will give different predictions of the behavior outside the range of the
historical data. Historical fit alone cannot give us confidence in the
utility of a model.
More important, fitting a logistic model - or any model - in this fashion
to a data set - any data set - is a black box, atheoretical procedure.
Curve fitting of this type is not grounded in a causal analysis of the
underlying system dynamics. The global climate/economy system is far too
complex, with far too many feedback processes, delays, and nonlinearities,
to be captured by a three parameter curve fit, or by any black box model.
It is true that logistic-type models can fit some data series for growth
processes well. It is also true, however, that there are many, many more
for which such models have failed.
The history of black box curve fitting is replete with examples of such
failed 'predictions' - beginning with the predictions of Verhulst for
various populations. Later, Pearl and Reed (1924), based on the same type
of model used here, that the US population would reach a maximum of 197.27
million people. The population of the US in 1990 was about 250 million and
it is still growing. They also estimated an upper limit to world
population of about 2 billion. World population today is about 6 billion
and growing. One might suppose that a factor of three error would provide
sufficient reason to abandon such black box curve fitting methods, but
instead, many aficionados of the logistic curve only concluded that there
had been a shift in parameters, or that the curve fit had to be done at a
more disaggregate level, or a different functional form used, or some other
ad hoc adjustment was required. Epicycles continue to be added to
epicycles. (A good review of the inappropriate use of the logistic and
other black box curve fitting models in the context of population growth is
found in Cohen, Joel (1995) How Many People can the Earth Support? New
York: WW Norton, my source for the Pearl and Reed predictions).
Black box modeling is the antithesis of good system dynamics practice. Far
too many people are still wasting far too much time and money in vain
attempts to find a simple equation that can be fit to some data set and
then make predictions without bothering with the tiresome and difficult
work of developing an actual theory of the underlying dynamics of the
process and testing it in the field. Further, far too much effort is
devoted to the generation of unconditional forecasts (such as Roberto's
forecast of CO2 concentration) and far too little to the development of
causal models that can help us design policies to change the dynamics for
the better and realize our deepest aspirations for a better world. I
believe it was St. Exupery who said "As for the future, your task is not to
foresee, but to enable it." Black box modeling is not only scientifically
unsupportable but emotionally disempowering.
My comments here are methodological and not ideological or political - I
would have written the same response had Roberto's conclusion been that
atmospheric CO2 concentration would treble and posed a grave threat to the
survival of humanity. Besides the work of George Backus, readers interested
in a thoughtful analysis of the global climate/economy system from a
structural perspective are directed to the work of Tom Fiddaman, who has
not only developed an original system dynamics model of the climate/economy
system, but also replicated and critiqued many of the most important such
models in the literature. Tom has a web site containing these models.
John Sterman
J. Spencer Standish Professor of Management
Director, MIT System Dynamics Group
MIT Sloan School of Management
E53-351
30 Wadsworth Street
Cambridge, MA 02142
617/253-1951 (voice); 617/258-7579 (fax), jsterman@mit.edu
http://web.mit.edu/jsterman/www
Date: Tue, 7 Jul 1998 12:03:14 -0400
To: k-12sd-@sysdyn.mit.edu
From: fred nickols <fnickols@ets.org> (by way of k-12sd)
Subject: Systems Dynamics and Teenagers
Jay Forrester closes a posting with this inquiry...
So, I have a question for people on this list. What aspects of the present
existing knowledge about system dynamics do you believe can not be
understood by 8th grade (about ages 13 to 14)? Of what we now know about
the dynamics of systems, which techniques, insights about systems,
principles, and understanding of behavior can not be mastered before
students get to high school? I would like to compile a list of material
that people think must be deferred until high school or college.
My answer is none. Precious little is as complex as the
world and life of a 13-14 year old. I doubt there's anything
about SD they couldn't grasp.
I'd be inclined to ask the question in reverse, that is,
where in the world can we find enough adults who have
mastered systems dynamics and who can still relate to
teenagers?
Fred Nickols, Executive Director
Strategic Planning & Management Services
Educational Testing Service [09-C]
Princeton, NJ 08541
Tel = 609.734.5077 Fax = 609.734.5590
e-mail = fnickols@ets.org
Views expressed are the author's, not ETS's.
Date: Wed, 8 Jul 1998
To: k-12sd-@sysdyn.mit.edu
From: Richard Turnock <Richard_Turnock@pgn.com> (by way of k-12sd)
Causal Loop diagrams
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Jay Forrester asked:
Of what we now know about the dynamics of systems, which techniques, insights
about systems, principles, and understanding of behavior can not be mastered
before students get to high school?
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
There is one thing: Causal loop diagrams are misrepresented to students and
teachers. As a result, they are made more difficult to master. Teachers
have told
me they don't teach students causal loop diagraming because it's too confusing
to have two techniques.
One thing I picked up from the conference was the origin of causal loops and
their original purpose. This was mentioned during the Sunday evening round
table discussion in the dining room. What I heard at the conference was
that a
stock and flow model was developed and then causal loops were created to help
communicate the model to people not familiar with stock and flow modeling.
I think a few people have inappropriately latched onto causal loop diagrams
as a
fundamental tool for describing how systems work without using stock and flow
models. I think it is inappropriate to teach students causal loops
diagraming as if
it was a rigorous technique in the modeling process. Causal loops are
useful as
an artistic representation of a stock and flow model. It is nothing more than
graphic art, useful for making presentations after developing a stock and flow
model.
I would like to see a policy statement for teachers, about the origin,
purpose and
use of causal loop diagrams, from an organization with enough credibility
to also
get the attention of professionals who use causal loop diagrams without a stock
and flow model. Then students at any age will have the opportunity to master
causal loop diagraming. Currently, teachers with experience in system dynamics
are advising their peers to not teach causal loop diagraming.
Richard Turnock
Portland General Electric 1WTC0903
121 SW Salmon St.
Portland OR 97204
503-464-8503
richard_turnock@pgn.com
www.pge-edsvcs.com
Date: Wed, 8 Jul 1998
To: k-12sd-@sysdyn.mit.edu
From: "Jay W. Forrester" <jforestr@MIT.EDU> (by way of k-12sd)
Subject: REPLY System dynamics in K-12 education (SD1535)
This came from the system-dynamics list, but should be of interest to the
K-12 list. JWF
--------------------------------------------------------
From: "Compton, Dan" <dan.compton@intel.com>
To: "'system-dynamics@world.std.com'" <system-dynamics@world.std.com>
Subject: REPLY System dynamics in K-12 education (SD1535)
Date: Tue, 7 Jul 1998 09:43:42 -0700
Mime-Version: 1.0
Sender: system-dynamics-approval@world.std.com
Precedence: list
Reply-To: system-dynamics@world.std.com
A strong second to Niall's thoughts. Here are three examples of deep
thinking discussions that I had with my 8yr old this last week.
Why do kings increase taxes on their people over time? There will come a
time when a large enough portion of the population will decided it is better
to be independent and forego the benefits of unity under the king's rule,
and they will revolt and declare independence.
Why do people kill tigers if they are endangered? First it gets harder and
harder to find big tigers and second the tigers will become extinct; then
nobody will have tigers.
What would happen if all the weeds in our yard were picked? How much time
would it take every week to pick the new little weeds? Answer: Zero to a
little bit (He does not yet have a crisp sense of time, but he easily
comprehends comparative growth through time.). How much time would it take
if the picking occurred only every month? Zero to kind of a lot of time (It
depends on the weather conditions.) How much time would it take if the
picking occurred every year only? Answer: Lots and lots of time; more than
all the times every week added together because the more weeds you have the
faster they spread. I will never have to explain why weeding is done even
though it looks like we can skip a week.
The complexity of the content is not the stumbling block to understanding.
The cognitive capabilities seem to be present for systems thinking even when
reading, writing, math, and telling time skills are not present. Our
assumptions that a bunch of schooling needs to take place before we can
think is wrong. I'm wondering if for some, that schooling actually
diminishes the ability to think.
While systems thinking and causal loops should be introduced before K,
learning the modeling tools should wait until 10-14yrs. That way making an
SD model never becomes a replacement for thinking, but rather becomes a tool
to manage the complexity of the problems not handled rigorously enough by
causal loops.
--Dan
From: "Compton, Dan" <dan.compton@intel.com>
---------------------------------------------------------
Jay W. Forrester
Professor of Management, Emeritus
and Senior Lecturer, Sloan School
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Room E60-389
Cambridge, MA 02139
tel: 617-253-1571
fax: 617-258-9405
Home office:
tel: 978-369-9372
fax: 978-369-9077
Date: Wed, 8 Jul 1998
To: k-12sd-@sysdyn.mit.edu
From: Peter Doolittle <pdoo@vt.edu> (by way of k-12sd)
Subject: Introduction
Hello!
My name is Peter Doolittle and I currently teaching educational psychology
and related courses, within the teacher education program, at Virginia
Tech. I am interested in (1) how can _I_ teach using a dynamic systems
approach, and (2) how can I teach my _future teachers_ to use dynamic
systems in _their_ classrooms. Thus, I am interested in dynamic systems
from both the perspective of the learner (learning) and the teacher
(teaching).
With this purpose in mind, what resources (web-based & text-based) are
available that address dynamic systems models of teaching?
peter
__________________________________________
Peter E. Doolittle
Department of Teaching & Learning
Virginia Tech
Blacksburg, VA 24061-0313
phone: (540) 231-3954
fax: (540) 231-9075
email: pdoo@vt.edu
www: http://www.chre.vt.edu/faculty-staff/doolittle/
Date: Wed, 8 Jul 1998
To: k-12sd-@sysdyn.mit.edu
From: dgentry3@mail.swbell.net (by way of k-12sd)
Subject: Introduction
Howdy from Texas,
I am a student working towards a Masters degree in Educational Leadership from Baylor University in Waco, Texas. Recently I took a course in contemporary curriculum and we had a 3 day seminar on systems thinking which focused on the work of Peter Senge. I am currently reading The Fifth Discipline and I am finding it absolutely fascinating. Why have we not found this sooner in education. I also just finished a critical analysis paper for this class where I examined symptomatic vs. systemic solutions in education. If anyone would like a copy, I would be gald to send you one. This has been my first exposure in a formal way to these ideas and I am intrigued to find out more. This fall I will be the Assistant Principal for a High School of 650 students in north/central Texas can anyone give me some ideas about staff development on the subject of teaching using systems dynamics. I have participated in a couple of lessons using systems dynamics and I was wondering if there are any resources I could get my hands on to help my teachers learn how to do this?
Thanks, Your partner in Texas DannyGentry
Date: Wed, 15 Jul 1998
To: k-12sd-@sysdyn.mit.edu
From: Lees Stuntz <stuntzln@tiac.net> (by way of k-12sd)
Subject: REPLY: System dynamics in K-12 education (SD1544)
This is from Jim Thompson to the system dynamics listserv. He targeted an
audience who might pick up SD quickly and they apparently did. A good
strategy for others to use??
Lees
>Date: Fri, 10 Jul 1998 12:01:17 -0700
>From: "James P. Thompson" <jamespthompson@globalprospectus.com>
>Organization: Global Prospectus LLC
>Mime-Version: 1.0
>To: system-dynamics@world.std.com
>Subject: REPLY: System dynamics in K-12 education (SD1544)
>Sender: system-dynamics-approval@world.std.com
>Precedence: list
>Reply-To: system-dynamics@world.std.com
>
>I was invited to give a short (1 hr.) presentation on SD to an Advanced
>Placement Calculus class at a local high school. The class comprised
>mostly seniors with a few juniors. Several students from the regular
>calculus course who had the period available joined the group.
>
>We built a little model together in Vensim. The subject of the model
>was a pizza restaurant, one that we assumed to be just opening in the
>community. After a very short introduction to stocks and flows
>diagramming, we started building the model. (I provided a little
>guidance and did the mouse work.) We got things simulating with no
>problems. After 40 productive minutes in which we modeled a marketplace
>with potential customers and competitors, elements of attractiveness,
>and the like, I made a "Julia Child proposition": I offered to show them
>a small model on the topic that I had prepared before joining them. For
>the remaining time, we changed constants and tested different tactics
>(advertising, investing in new pizza products).
>
>Everyone had a great time; none of the students or teachers had
>difficulty with the concepts. I left them each with a copy of Vensim
>PLE, the structure of the model we built in class and a copy of the
>model I had prepared beforehand. I've received several emails on the
>experience and many good questions. Maybe we have converted a few more
>by merely exposing them to the concept.
>
>Jim Thompson
>jim@GlobalProspects.com
>
Lees N. Stuntz
Creative Learning Exchange Phone- 978-287-0070
1 Keefe Road Fax- 978-287-0080
Acton, MA 01720 e-mail- stuntzln@tiac.net
http://sysdyn.mit.edu/cle/
Date: Wed, 15 Jul 1998
To: k-12sd-@sysdyn.mit.edu
From: "Jay W. Forrester" <jforestr@MIT.EDU> (by way of k-12sd)
Subject: Guided Study Program in System Dynamics
Last call for the Guided Study in System Dynamics for 1998-1999. Anyone in
your organization who is interested should communicate with us by August 1
at:
gsp-info@sysdyn.mit.edu
The MIT Guided Study Program in System Dynamics is receiving applications
from participants for its second year. The Program will begin in early
September 1998 and run until June 1999. Participants must possess a
computer and have access to the Internet, and be willing to devote at least
fifteen hours per week to the Program. To cover the costs, each participant
will be expected to pay US$5,000 in advance. Applications will be taken in
the order of submission, excepting our right to decide that the Program may
not be appropriate for some applicants. The Program will also admit a few
full-time K-12 teachers and school administrators for a much smaller fee of
$500.
The Guided Study Program, GSP, is a distance learning program conducted by
e-mail for people without a basic training in the fundamentals of system
dynamics. The focus is on understanding the key principles of system
dynamics and using them in computer simulations.
The Program is organized as a guided study of the "Road Maps" series and
some of the "classics" in system dynamics literature. Weekly (and
occasionally biweekly) assignments include readings from papers in Road
Maps, exercises based on those papers, additional questions on the topics
of study, readings from the classic system dynamics literature, and
modeling exercises. (Road Maps is a series of chapters on system dynamics
and can be found on the web server at sysdyn.mit.edu)
Progress of participants is monitored by a team composed of MIT
undergraduates with experience working for the System Dynamics in Education
Project. Members of the team, the GSP tutors, are authors of many of the
papers included in Road Maps. Each week the team reports back to the System
Dynamics in Education Project group meeting with Prof. Forrester to relate
progress of participants and discuss questions that arise.
The Program is customized to interests and aptitudes of participants.
Length and difficulty of assignments varies depending on performance of
participants on previous assignments. Participants can reach tutors
individually through e-mail and get feedback on questions and concerns.
The first year of the Guided Study Program ends in July 1998. Tutors and
participants all found the Program to be a rewarding and educational
experience. The System Dynamics in Education Project will be holding a
similar Guided Study Program for the 1998-1999 school year. Material
covered will be similar to the first year, but experience gained this past
year will serve to improve next year's Program.
Anyone who is interested in participating in the 1998-1999 System Dynamics
in Education Project Guided Study Program should contact us before August
1st. Please include some personal background and describe your present work
(about one page).
For additional information about the Guided Study Program, please contact us at
<gsp-info@sysdyn.mit.edu>
or refer to our home page
http://sysdyn.mit.edu/DistanceLearning/ .
The home page features:
o A paper about the GSP for the System Dynamics Society Quebec City
Conference in July 1998
o Quotes from past participants in the GSP
o A sample assignment
o A sample solution
---------------------------------------------------------
Jay W. Forrester
Professor of Management, Emeritus
and Senior Lecturer, Sloan School
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Room E60-389
Cambridge, MA 02139
tel: 617-253-1571
fax: 617-258-9405
Home office:
tel: 978-369-9372
fax: 978-369-9077
Date: Wed, 15 Jul 1998 To: k-12sd-@sysdyn.mit.edu
From: "Adrian Boucher" <e1sad@ice.csv.warwick.ac.uk> (by way of k-12sd)
Subject: Re: Introduction
Hi Danny
Alonside my private response to your request, may I suggest you look
at:
Mandinach, E B and H F Cline (1994), "Classroom Dynamics: implementing a
technology-based learning environment" , Lawrence earlbaum
Associates, Hillsdale, NJ.
Richardson, G P (19965): "Feedback thought and systems theory",
Pittsburgh, University of Pennsylvania Press.
Forrester, Jay W (1992): "System dynamics and learner-centered
learning in Kindergarten through 12th grade education", Sloan School
of Management, MIT, Report D-2337, December.
Forrester, Jay W (1994): "Learning through system dynamics as
preparation for the 21st Century", Systems Thinking and Dynamic
Modeling Conference, Concord, MA, Creative Learning Exchange, Acton,
MA.
[By the way, the Creative Learning Exchange (contact Lees
Stuntz: stuntzln@tiac.net, and the SD in Education Project (contact
Nan Lux: nlux@mit.edu) are both outstanding sources of good materials for
all educators.
Crawford, L and S Molder (1992): "Innovation in an integrated middle
school curriculum", Proceedings of the American Educational Research
Association, San Francisco, CA.
Hope these help.
Best wishes
Adrian Boucher
_____________________________________________________
Dr. Adrian Boucher
Director
NatWest Financial Literacy Centre
Centre for Education & Industry
University of Warwick
Coventry
CV4 7AL
UK
Tel: +44 1203 524 234
Fax: +44 1203 523 617
e-mail: adrian.boucher@warwick.ac.uk
URL: http://www.csv.warwick.ac.uk/fac/cross_fac/nflc
"Where there is no vision, the people perish"
Proverbs 29:18
Date: Wed, 29 Jul 1998
To: k-12sd-@sysdyn.mit.edu
From: k-12sd@sysdyn.mit.edu (k-12sd)
Subject: Lost message #1
Hi everyone,
In the past couple of months, there has been some confussion about the
address that should be used to participate in the K-12 system dynamics
discussions. This is the reason why some messages have not been forwarded
to the list. From now on make sure you only use k-12sd@sysdyn.mit.edu
when sending any message to the discussion list.
Following are seven of the messages that were lost for some time thanks
to the confussion.
Thanks,
k-12sd Mailmasters
------------------------Message #1-----------------------
Subject: Re: Target Setting in Schools
Date: Mon, 04 May 1998 23:11:18 +0200
From: e7750010@tsai.es
To: "k-12sd-@sysdyn.mit.edu" <k-12sd-@sysdyn.mit.edu>
References: 1
> On 28 April 1998, Don Ledingham wrote:
> >My question is, "How do I introduce the concept of targets (which are
>
> >completely alien to Scottish education) in a way in which teachers
> can
> >feel in control and not react to them in a negative manner which
> might
> >then necessitate an imposition from us, as managers?"
>
> If you mean, "How can we manipulate the teachers into thinking of the
> targets as a good idea?" -- you can't. If you mean, "How can we not
> alienate the teachers completely and still get along with these
> imposed
> targets?" then I suspect you can.
>
> You say that the government imposed these targets, so I assume you
> can't
> refuse them or even push back. If true, then you must answer what I
> call the Deming question: "By what method?" You, as a manager, have
> the
> job of not only explaining the targets and the consequences of not
> meeting
> them, but also proposing a plan to accomplish the targets. You don't
> need
> to create a perfect plan, just a starting point. Then ask the
> teachers
> for help. Or, start with the teachers and a blank sheet of paper.
I'd like to add that it could be useful pointing not only the negative
aspects of not reaching the targets, but also making a list of the
positive consequences of reaching them in terms of the school as a whole
and for the different groups involved (students, teachers, parents,
etc.)Ana Robles
(School teacher)
Date: Mon, 25 May 1998
From: Niall Palfreyman <Niall.Palfreyman@assyst-intl.com>
To: k-12sd-@sysdyn.mit.edu (Lost message #2)
Ed Gallaher (by way of k-12sd) wrote:
> I like this description by Niall.
>
Thank you, Ed. I liked yours, too.
>
> You cannot -make- a guide dog lead you through a crowded room, it must
> -want- to lead you through.
>
This reminds me of a comment by Judith DeLozier (an NLP wizz) after her
first encounter with Milton Erikson (a hypnotherapist): "I didn't think
he was particularly clever at formulating suggestions. But he was just
such a lovely old man that I didn't want to disappoint him by NOT doing
what he suggested."
>
> The teacher must -want- to change ... But a
> mandate from above will not accomplish this.
>
I agree absolutely: a mandate from above will NOT accomplish this, and
for me that is a statement about the effectiveness of imperative
communication in general. It is quick and effective, but has no lasting
influence. My feeling is that the problem with imperative communication
is that it involves a minimum of that cognitive ability which lies at
the root of language use - forming an internal cognitive model of the
communication recipient.
An imperative sets a goal and communicates no respect for the
recipient's ability to explore various alternatives to this goal. If the
goal happens to match the recipient's own wishes it will be accepted,
but if it does not, then it will simply be shrugged off in the long
term. For me the advantage of dominoes is that they are small,
PERMISSIVE chunks of communication which can be flexibly combined by the
recipient into a plan of action according to her OWN design.
So what am I rambling on about? Well, I'm wondering to what extent it's
possible for the directors of a school to take a mandate from above and
to reinterpret it for the school staff as a set of "dominoes":
permissive communications such as information evenings, incentives and
teaching support, whose INTENTION is the same as the intention of the
mandate, but which drop its imperative character. Of course, this is
only possible if the school directorate is happy with the intention of
the mandate.
Would this be possible?
Have fun!
Niall Palfreyman email: Niall.Palfreyman@assyst-intl.com
assyst GmbH, Henschelring 15a
85551 Kirchheim bei Muenchen Tel: ++49-89-90505-230
Germany. Fax: ++49-89-90505-102/3
Date: Wed, 29 Jul 1998
To: k-12sd-@sysdyn.mit.edu
From: k-12sd@sysdyn.mit.edu (k-12sd)
Subject: Lost Message #3
Subject: (Root) Beer Game for Calculators
Date: Mon, 6 Jul 1998 11:39:10 -0500
From: Wstroup@mail.utexas.edu (Walter M. Stroup)
To: k-12sd-@sysdyn.mit.edu
Folks,
Some of you may be interested in a version of the (Root) Beer Game I wrote
for use with a graphing calculator*. One calculator is passed between the
four players with each player having access only to the state of her/his
location. Alternative scenarios are available in the included archive.
The time-evolution of the various state variables for each of the players
is recorded to LISTs in the calculator and can be used for discussion and
analysis later (using the built-in features of the calculator).
Interaction (including passing data) with finite difference modeling
environments like STELLA, Powersim, Madonna and/or Vensim will be worked on
as part of a new project being started by myself and a colleage -- Uri
Wilensky (see below).
The software has been tested in a couple of my classes here at the
University of Texas, Austin and at the National Meeting of Teachers
Teaching with Technology ("T-cubed") organization sponsored by Texas
Instruments. The software (and/or similar kinds of activities) will be
used next academic year in inner city middle- and high schools here in
Austin and in Roxbury, Massachusetts.
Lees Stuntz has agreed to post the achive containing the programs and
support documentation on the Creative Learning Exchange site. At the end
of this message I've included information about how to get started with
these files.
If you are intested in finding out more about the (Root) Beer Game
including directions etc., a very good place to start is the following URL:
http://learning.mit.edu/pra/tool/beer.html
For more information about the Participatory Simulations Project that Uri
Wilensky and I will be working on more in the coming years, see the follow
(draft!) web site:
http://www.edb.utexas.edu/faculty/wstroup/proj_sum.htm
The project has many dimensions to it, including working on some very new
network technologies for use in classrooms being developed with Texas
Instruments. We are expecting to develop relations with additional
partners as well. We have applied for NSF funding are keeping our fingers
and toes crossed. It is certainly our hope that we could collaborate with,
build on, and extend in complementary ways the vitally important work of
the CC-STADUS/CC-SUSTAIN Project
(http://www.teleport.com/~sguthrie/cc-stadus.html) as well as other systems
learning projects.
Let me know how it goes if you do use the Root Beer Game software.
with Best Regards,
--Walter Stroup
* - Obviously this version is free for non-commercial use by educators.
Other rights that may be held by myself and/or The University of Texas,
Austin are expressly retained. [In the past I've had the unfortunate
experience of seeing software I wrote as freeware being distributed
commercially, so I now I include these sorts of statements].
==== Directions for Installing ====
To unstuff the files you will need expander software like *Stuffit
Expander* available for free from the following address:
http://www.aladdinsys.com/expander/index.html
After expanding, the files can be loaded from a Mac computer to Texas
Instruments TI-83 calculators (only) using GraphLink available from Texas
Instruments (or any number of office supply vendors listed on the TI web
page below). The GraphLink software is free. The hardware connector costs
around $40 (or less). Once one calculator is loaded, it is also possible
to transfer from calculator to calculator using the LINK feature of the
calculators.
For information about GraphLink go to http://www.ti.com/calc/docs/link.htm
or call 800-TI-CARES (800-842-2737).
The files are from a Mac computer. I'm told the files will load from a
Windows machine using the Windows version of GraphLink after decompression
with the Windows version of *Stuffit Expander*.
The Read Me file (SimpleText) gives info. on how to get started. Basically
just run the RBGAME program. The minimum length version (see Read Me for
information on how to extend the game) takes at least 1.5 hours to complete
and there is not (yet) a resume feature available.
Subject: Re: System dynamics in K-12 education
Date: Mon, 6 Jul 1998
From: Wstroup@mail.utexas.edu (Walter M. Stroup)
To: "Jay W. Forrester" <jforestr@MIT.EDU> (by way of k-12sd),
k-12sd-@sysdyn.mit.edu
= from: "Jay W. Forrester" <jforestr@MIT.EDU> (by way of k-12sd) =
>In one place, kindergarten students identify stocks
>and flows in their environment. In at least one first-grade class the
>students draw behavior-over-time graphs of changes they identify in stories
>that are read to them (dynamics before they are doing their own reading).
>
>So, I have a question for people on this list. What aspects of the present
>existing knowledge about system dynamics do you believe can not be
>understood by 8th grade (about ages 13 to 14)? Of what we now know about
>the dynamics of systems, which techniques, insights about systems,
>principles, and understanding of behavior can not be mastered before
>students get to high school? I would like to compile a list of material
>that people think must be deferred until high school or college.
===
I'm sorry I wasn't at the conference!
Work by myself and others -- most notably Ricardo Nemirovsky from TERC --
suggests that the differentiation and then reintegration of how much
(stocks) and how fasts (flows) are vital to understanding dynamics.
Identifying certain aspects of one's experience as stock-like or flow-like
is certainly significant (as you report the kindergarten students were able
to do). Unfortunately there is a substantial literature on young learners'
understandings of rate and amount constructs (starting with Piaget's work
on children's conception of movement and speed from the 1940's) suggesting
that rate and amount/location ideas interact so vitally as to be
confounded. For example, Piaget noted that the act of overtaking was seen
as meaning one object was going faster than another for young learners
(even if it wasn't as with different starting places or starting and
finishing times). Much more recently, Ricardo has suggested that learners
"conflate" notions of how much and how fast in graphical settings. I have
certainly found this in my work. The highest point on a position (or
volume) graph is both "highest" and "fastest" for learners. This close
association of how much and how fast is perfectly understandable. If we
want to go on a long (distance) trip we will often want to go fast; if we
go slowly we can expect that we might not go very far. Associating fast
and far; slow and short is often very practical. Moreover, our notions of
time also interact with rate and amount constructs. If I say I want to go
on a "long trip", do I mean distance or time? If I say someone went
"fast", do I mean time or speed? This interaction with temporal ideas will
show up in graphical work if you ask learners to compare two graphs (e.g.
position vs. time); one simple (say a straight line) and one with lots of
variation. The graphs could come from a real-time environment that the
students had been working with for weeks that samples from the same amount
of time (as viewed by someone with a differentiated notion of time). Yet
if learners are asked (and I've done this with adults as well as very young
learners) which motion -- if replayed [which is possible if MBL data is
exported to MathWorlds software] -- would finish first, even after they
become quite good at distinguishing how much aspects of a graph from how
much aspects (e.g. they will not conflate furthest with fastest) about
60-70% of the learners will say the shorter line (simpler) will finish
first. If asked why, they will say because if the varying graph was
stretched out ("like spaghetti" on learner said) it would be longer and
hence would take longer to finish. The rest of the learners (usually a
minority but a size-able one) will say the more complex graph because it's
moving more so it will finish faster. Very few will say the motions will
finish at exactly the same time (even if the axes are labeled, etc.).
[There is a lot more detail about this sort of investigations reported
elsewhere so please excuse the leaps of faith I ask you to take in the
interest of 'brevity'].
So there seem to be two major kinds of issues/challenges associated with
learning systems dynamics (which, most certainly, can be done before high
school!):
I. Qualitatively (or, if you prefer, "conceptually" or "comparatively")
differentiating and then reintegrating notions of how much and how fast,
including constructing an abstracted notion of time. There are kinds of
'reversibility' that manifest themselves in learners understandings that
can be seen to typify this differentiation and reintegration (this was the
topic of a major presentation I gave with Jere Confrey, Ricardo Nemirovsky,
and Pat Thompson as respondents at the Research Pre-Session of this years
national NCTM meeting in Washington).
(A complication of this analysis for the standard systems dynamics stance
is that the integral is not seen -- in any absolute or universal way -- as
more fundamental to the construction of these forms of reversible
qualitative reasoning than the derivative. Nature may appear be biased
toward integration, but the reasoning of kids certainly is not ... ;-) ).
II. Linking qualitative/comparative ideas with ratio-based (formal)
constructions of rate as ratios of changes. Piaget may have
over-emphasized ratio-based reasoning and thus, failed to identify powerful
qualitative/conceptual insights that learners are able to construct. This
oversight notwithstanding, a major issues remains of how to link
qualitative understandings of rate (of the sort that may have been
exhibited in the graphs the first graders you report on generated) with
ratio-based quantifications. Just one illustration of how complex this can
be is to realize that the over-emphasis on 'repeated addition' models of
multiplication in current elementary school practice may both: 1. confound
learners' efforts to construct ratio-based metrics for rate and 2. subvert
more powerful multiplicative structures that other researchers (notably
Jere Confrey) have shown young learners (early elementary) do exhibit if
they are not pushed aside by (less general) repeated addition models.
These issues, I would suggest, are fundamental but I see no reason they
need (necessarily) be deferred to high school or beyond [if ever] (as is
currently the case).
with Best Regard,
--Walter Stroup
Department of Curriculum and Instruction
The University of Texas, Austin
(512) 232-3958
http://www.edb.utexas.edu/faculty/wstroup/wms.htm
http://www.edb.utexas.edu/faculty/wstroup/proj_sum.htm
Subject: System dynamics in K-12 education
Date: Wed, 8 Jul 1998
From: Robert Tinker <bob@concord.org>
To: k-12sd-@sysdyn.mit.edu
CC: shari@concord.org
Hi Jay:
Thanks to Nancy for forwarding this note.
The meeting sounds wonderful, too bad I missed it.
I think your question, Jay, is very interesting. Not having been at the
meeting, I cannot comment on what it revealed about children's thinking,
but in my experience, there are some possible areas of difficulty:
1. Distinguishing between rate and stock. I have seen many middle grade
student stumble over this issue. They do not grasp the huge difference
between the two kinds of variable and so cannot accurately make models that
reflect their thinking.
2. Negative numbers. Variables that go negative, like velocity, and then
increase, say, get kids hopelessly confused.
3. Defining 'good' variables. In the problem definition stage, I have
seen kids, and teachers, make models that are far too complex, because they
don't really have an idea about variables. They end up with too many
variables, ones that have very poor definitions, overlapping variables that
seem to need to interact, etc.
I'd be very interested in your views about what the cognitive steps are in
learning to make models.
Robert Tinker, president,
The Concord Consortium http://www.concord.org
37 Thoreau St., Concord, MA 01742
978-369-4367, fax: 978 371-0696
Implementing the educational promise of technology
Creators of the Virtual High School.
http://www.digital.com/alphaserver/gallery/site_0298.html
Co-founder of CILT: The Center for Innovative Learning Technologies.
http://cilt.org
Read the PCAST Report
http://www.whitehouse.gov/WH/EOP/OSTP/NSTC/PCAST/k-12ed.html#139
Subject: Course Syllabi
Date: Thu, 9 Jul 1998
From: Peter Doolittle <pdoo@vt.edu>
To: k-12sd-@sysdyn.mit.edu
A general question:
Does anyone have a syllabus (or syllabi) from a Dynamic Systems (and
education) course that you could send me? I'd like to progress toward
offering a DS course here at Virginia Tech, and would like some perspective.
thanks
peter
Peter E. Doolittle
Department of Teaching & Learning
Virginia Tech
Blacksburg, VA 24061-0313
phone: (540) 231-3954
fax: (540) 231-9075
email: pdoo@vt.edu
www: http://www.chre.vt.edu/faculty-staff/doolittle/
Subject: Computer Programs for Exploring Complex Causality
Date: Mon, 27 Jul 1998
From: Linda Booth Sweeney <boothsli@hugse1.harvard.edu>
To: k-12sd-@sysdyn.mit.edu
Greetings all --
I sent this message to the K-12SD list but did not see it posted. Here it
again:
I'm conducting research with Harvard's Project Zero this summer and have
the task of compiling a list of computer programs designed to helped kids
explore complex causality.
Here's my initial list... am I missing any?
Stella
Star Logo
Sim City
Model It (would like to know more about this one)
Interactive Physics
SIM CITY
BeGuile
Vensim and Ithink, for example are missing from this list only because I
have no first-hand knowledge of their use by younger students. If that data
exists, please let me know.
I'll be writing up a description of each, with compelling features, costs,
etc. and am happy to send it to anyone who is interested when I'm finished.
My best,
Linda
Linda Booth Sweeney
Harvard Graduate School of Education
18 Fernald Drive #22
Cambridge, MA 02138
617-354-1390
e-mail: boothsli@hugse1.harvard.edu
Date: Thu, 30 Jul 1998
To: k-12sd-@sysdyn.mit.edu
From: Mary Ellen Verona <mverona@mvhs1.mbhs.edu> (by way of K-12sd Discussion List <k-12sd@sysdyn.mit.edu>)
Subject: Re: Lost Message #5 - WOW
It's great reading a message from one of my heros to another one.
I hope to post soon some results on the skills we've found that predict
success in using system dynamics. It will be interesting to reinterpret
them in light of Tinker's thoughts. For those who don't know, he has a
paper on the web somewhere about the problems he found introducing system
dynamics to young students. I think it needs to be done gradually over
time. ;)
Mary Ellen Verona
mverona@mvhs1.mbhs.edu
***** new address ******
Maryland Virtual High School
Montgomery Blair High School
51 East University Boulevard
Silver Spring, MD 20901
301-649-2880
Date: Thu, 30 Jul 1998 To: k-12sd-@sysdyn.mit.edu
From: <FRobchen@aol.com> (by way of K-12sd Discussion List <k-12sd@sysdyn.mit.edu>)
Subject: Clarification
Just received Stella software and booklets. I've been going through the
tutorial. In the simulation of the deer population why is the recommended
graph showing the deer population at zero?
Della Robertson
Norwalk High School
Date: Fri, 31 Jul 1998
To: k-12sd-@sysdyn.mit.edu
From: Niall Palfreyman <Niall.Palfreyman@assyst-intl.com> (by way of K-12SD Discussion List <k-12sd@sysdyn.mit.edu>)
Subject: Re: Robert Tinker's list
Robert Tinker wrote:
>
> 1. Distinguishing between rate and stock. I have seen many middle
> grade student stumble over this issue. They do not grasp the huge
> difference between the two kinds of variable and so cannot accurately
> make models that reflect their thinking.
> 2. Negative numbers. Variables that go negative, like velocity, and
> then increase, say, get kids hopelessly confused.
> 3. Defining 'good' variables. In the problem definition stage, I
> have seen kids, and teachers, make models that are far too complex,
> because they don't really have an idea about variables. They end up
> with too many variables, ones that have very poor definitions,
> overlapping variables that seem to need to interact, etc.
Hi Robert,
I like this list - it makes a lot of sense to me. I stick by my claim
that anything can be explained to 14-year-old children if it's done
appropriately, but now of course that leaves the onus on me to suggest
approaches for these topics. I'll give it a try:
1. My general approach is to phrase any concept I want to bring across
in terms of body language and movement. So I guess my approach here
would be to say something like:
"A flow is a postman. If a letter is given to her, she passes it on to
other people. That is, WORKING HARD, for the postman, means passing
letters on to other people more rapidly. A stock is a person living at
home who gets given letters by the postman. He doesn't pass them on, but
rather keeps them and sticks them in a big sack." This analogy makes it
clear that stocks and flows are not on different planets from each
other, but rather simply have different tasks.
2. Yeah, this IS a hard one. One approach I once used to negative
numbers was as sandhills and holes on the beach - adding sand to a hill
makes in bigger, but adding sand to a hole makes it smaller.
3. Generally I recommend using a text description of a problem situation
as a basis for finding variables. The variables are then the nouns,
verbs and adjectives of the text description. However I should say that
I've never used this technique for teaching system dynamics.
I would love to follow this discussion further, but unfortunately I have
to leave on a business trip to San Francisco in 45 minutes, so I guess
I'll have to wait until September to find out how it progressed. Ah
well, such is life.
Bye,
Niall.
If we gain something, it was there from the beginning.
If we lose something, it is hidden nearby.
Dr. Niall Palfreyman mailto:Niall.Palfreyman@assyst-intl.com
assyst GmbH, Henschelring 15a
85551 Kirchheim bei Muenchen Tel: ++49-89-90505-230
Germany. Fax: ++49-89-90505-102/3
End of July